A map of the Empire of Japan including Taiwan in 1895

Alternate History: U.S. Occupation of Formosa in the 1850s

If the United States had occupied Formosa (modern-day Taiwan) in the 1850s following Commodore Matthew C. Perry’s proposal, the island’s historical trajectory, as well as regional and global dynamics, could have diverged significantly. Below is a speculative exploration of how history might have unfolded:

Strategic and Economic Implications:

• Trade Hub: Formosa’s occupation would have positioned the U.S. as a major player in East Asian trade, leveraging the island as a mid-way point between China, Japan, and Southeast Asia. American merchants could have dominated trade routes, challenging British, French, and Dutch influence.
• Military Stronghold: As Perry noted, Formosa’s defensible geography could have made it a key naval base, akin to Cuba for Spain. This would have given the U.S. a strategic foothold to project power in the Pacific, potentially deterring European colonial ambitions and influencing conflicts like the Opium Wars.
• Economic Development: American investment might have spurred early infrastructure development, such as ports, railways, and telegraph lines, transforming Formosa into a commercial hub earlier than its historical industrialization under Japanese rule (1895–1945).

Impact on Regional Powers:

• Qing China: The Qing Dynasty, which nominally controlled Formosa, was weakening in the 1850s due to internal rebellions (e.g., Taiping Rebellion) and external pressures. A U.S. occupation might have provoked diplomatic protests but likely no military response, given Qing limitations. However, it could have accelerated China’s perception of foreign encirclement, possibly intensifying anti-Western sentiment.
• Japan: Japan, opened to trade by Perry’s missions, might have viewed U.S. control of Formosa warily, especially as it modernized post-Meiji Restoration (1868). This could have led to earlier tensions or alliances, altering Japan’s imperial ambitions toward Taiwan in 1895.
• European Powers: Britain and France, dominant in Asia, would likely have opposed U.S. expansion, fearing competition. This might have led to diplomatic friction or even proxy conflicts, though outright war would have been unlikely given shared Western interests.

Formosa’s Sociopolitical Evolution:

• American Governance: The U.S. might have administered Formosa as a territory, similar to Hawaii or the Philippines later. This could have introduced American legal systems, education, and Protestant missionary activity, reshaping local culture alongside indigenous and Chinese influences.
• Indigenous and Settler Dynamics: The U.S. would have faced challenges managing Formosa’s indigenous populations and Chinese settlers. Policies might have mirrored those toward Native Americans, potentially leading to displacement or assimilation efforts, with long-term demographic and cultural impacts.
• Path to Statehood or Independence: Depending on U.S. policy, Formosa could have followed a trajectory like Hawaii (annexation and statehood) or the Philippines (eventual independence). By the 20th century, Formosa might have emerged as a U.S. state, a self-governing territory, or an independent nation with strong American ties.

Global Ramifications:

• U.S. Imperial Trajectory: Occupying Formosa would have accelerated America’s imperial ambitions, potentially leading to earlier involvement in Pacific conflicts or colonization efforts elsewhere in Asia.
• World Wars and Cold War: A U.S.-controlled Formosa might have altered Pacific dynamics during World War II, possibly preventing Japanese occupation. In the Cold War, it could have been a staunch U.S. ally, shifting regional balances against China and the Soviet Union.
• Modern Taiwan: Today, Formosa might resemble a Pacific version of Hawaii or Guam, with a unique blend of American, Chinese, and indigenous identities. Its geopolitical role could mirror Singapore’s as a trade and military hub, with less ambiguity over sovereignty than modern Taiwan faces.

Legal Justification for U.S. Occupation

The U.S. could have attempted to justify occupying Formosa legally in the 1850s using frameworks common to 19th-century imperialism, though the justification would have been contentious. Possible approaches include:

Terra Nullius or “No Sovereign Control”:

• The U.S. could have argued that Formosa was effectively under no strong sovereign control, given the Qing Dynasty’s loose governance over the island (limited to coastal areas, with indigenous groups dominating the interior). This claim, akin to justifications for colonizing Australia, would have ignored Qing nominal authority and indigenous rights but aligned with Western colonial logic.

Strategic Necessity and Trade Rights:

• Citing the need to secure trade routes and counter European monopolies, the U.S. could have framed occupation as a defensive measure to protect American commercial interests. Perry’s reports emphasized Formosa’s strategic value, which could have been presented as justifying preemptive control to ensure “freedom of commerce.”

Treaty or Purchase:

• The U.S. might have sought a treaty with the Qing Dynasty, exploiting China’s weakness to cede or lease Formosa, similar to Britain’s acquisition of Hong Kong in 1842. Alternatively, a nominal purchase (like the Louisiana Purchase) could have been proposed, though Qing resistance to ceding territory outright would have been likely.

Civilizing Mission:

• Echoing the “white man’s burden,” the U.S. could have claimed a duty to “civilize” Formosa’s indigenous peoples and Chinese settlers, introducing Christianity, education, and governance. This paternalistic rationale was common in U.S. expansion (e.g., Native American policies) and European colonialism.

Precedent of Exploration:

• Drawing on Perry’s analogy to Cuba’s role for Spain, the U.S. could have argued that occupying Formosa was a natural extension of its exploratory and commercial rights, akin to earlier claims over uncharted territories in the Americas.

Challenges to Legality:

• Qing Sovereignty: The Qing Dynasty, though weak, maintained recognized sovereignty over Formosa, and occupation without treaty or conquest would have violated international norms, risking condemnation from China and European powers.
• Domestic Opposition: U.S. anti-imperialists and those wary of overexpansion (especially amid sectional tensions over slavery) might have challenged the legal and moral basis for occupation.
• International Backlash: European powers, particularly Britain, might have contested U.S. claims diplomatically, citing their own treaties with China or invoking balance-of-power concerns.

Conclusion

A U.S. occupation of Formosa in the 1850s could have transformed the island into a key American outpost, reshaping East Asian trade, regional power dynamics, and Formosa’s cultural identity. It might have accelerated U.S. imperialism while complicating relations with China, Japan, and Europe. Legally, the U.S. would likely have relied on dubious colonial-era justifications, exploiting Qing weakness and framing occupation as a strategic and civilizing necessity, though such claims would have faced significant diplomatic and ethical scrutiny.

Commodore Perry’s fleet for his second visit to Japan, 1854

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Landing of Commodore Perry at Yokohama, Japan, March 8th 1854

The Japanese Government’s Reaction to Commodore Perry’s Arrival

The arrival of Commodore Matthew Perry of the United States Navy in July 1853 marked a significant turning point in Japanese history. Leading a squadron of two steamers and two sailing vessels, Perry sailed into Tokyo harbor aboard the frigate Susquehanna, demanding that the Japanese government open its ports for trade with the United States. This event sparked a series of reactions from both the Japanese government and the wider population, ultimately leading to the downfall of the Tokugawa Shogunate and the establishment of a new centralized government. In this article, we will explore the various reactions of the Japanese government and people to Commodore Perry’s arrival.

Background: Tokugawa Japan

To understand the reactions of the Japanese government to Perry’s arrival, it is essential to first examine the political landscape of Japan at the time. In the early 17th century, Japan was ruled by the Tokugawa Shogunate, a military government led by the powerful Tokugawa family. The Shogunate had maintained a policy of isolation from the rest of the world for over two centuries, believing that foreign influences such as trade, Christianity, and firearms could potentially destabilize the delicate balance of power between the Shogun and the feudal lords.

The Tokugawa Shogunate’s Isolationist Policy

The isolationist policy of the Tokugawa Shogunate was established by the third Shogun, Tokugawa Iemitsu, in the 17th century. This policy had several key components, including strict regulations on foreign trade, the prohibition of Christianity, and the restriction of firearms. The Shogunate believed that these measures would protect the stability of their rule by limiting the influence of foreign powers and preventing the rise of a powerful, unified opposition.

Tokugawa Japan’s Political Structure

The Tokugawa Shogunate was not a centralized state, but rather a collection of semi-autonomous domains ruled by feudal lords, who were relatives or allies of the Tokugawa family. The Shogun maintained control over these domains by forbidding marriages among the feudal lords’ families and by requiring them to spend every other year in Edo (now Tokyo), the Shogunal capital. This system effectively prevented any alliances from forming against the Shogunate and ensured its dominance over Japan.

The Arrival of Commodore Perry

The arrival of Commodore Perry and his fleet in 1853 marked the end of Japan’s isolationist policy and forced the Japanese government to confront the reality of a rapidly changing world. Perry’s demands for open trade and the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and Japan threatened the very foundations of the Tokugawa Shogunate.

The Immediate Reaction of the Japanese Government

Upon witnessing the arrival of Perry’s fleet, the Japanese government was initially resistant to his demands. Many officials viewed the foreign ships as a threat to Japan’s sovereignty and wanted the foreigners expelled from the country. However, it quickly became apparent that the Japanese military was no match for the advanced naval technology of the American fleet. With no viable means of defense, the Japanese government was left with little choice but to acquiesce to Perry’s demands.

Treaty Negotiations and the Opening of Japanese Ports

In 1854, the Japanese government signed the Treaty of Kanagawa, which allowed for trade between the United States and Japan at two ports, Shimoda and Hakodate. This marked the beginning of a series of treaties with Western powers, including Russia, Britain, France, and the Netherlands, which forced Japan to open additional ports and establish diplomatic relations with these countries. These agreements, known as the “unequal treaties,” were seen as an affront to Japan’s sovereignty and a clear sign of the Tokugawa Shogunate’s weakness in the face of foreign pressure.

The Impact of Commodore Perry’s Arrival on the Japanese Economy

The opening of Japan’s ports to foreign trade had a profound impact on the country’s economy. The influx of foreign currency disrupted the Japanese monetary system, leading to inflation and economic instability. The Japanese government struggled to adapt to these changes, further highlighting the inadequacies of the Tokugawa Shogunate.

Economic Disruption and Instability

The influx of foreign currency and goods into Japan had far-reaching effects on the economy. The rapid increase in the supply of foreign currency led to inflation, as the value of Japanese currency declined relative to foreign currencies. This inflation had a destabilizing effect on Japan’s economy, as the cost of living increased and traditional industries struggled to compete with foreign imports.

The Japanese Government’s Struggle to Adapt

The Tokugawa Shogunate was ill-equipped to handle the economic changes brought about by the opening of Japan’s ports to foreign trade. The government’s lack of experience with international trade and diplomacy, coupled with its rigid adherence to outdated policies, made it difficult for the Shogunate to adapt to the new economic realities and address the growing discontent among the population.

The Downfall of the Tokugawa Shogunate

The arrival of Commodore Perry and the subsequent opening of Japan’s ports to foreign trade exposed the weaknesses of the Tokugawa Shogunate and ultimately led to its downfall. The inability of the Japanese government to effectively manage the country’s economic and diplomatic affairs in the face of foreign pressure led to a loss of confidence in the Shogunate’s ability to rule.

Calls for a Change in Leadership

As the problems associated with foreign trade continued to mount, some samurai leaders began to call for a change in leadership. They argued that the Tokugawa Shogunate was incapable of dealing with the challenges posed by the Western powers and that a new, centralized government was needed to restore Japan’s sovereignty and address the nation’s economic woes.

The Rise of the Emperor and the End of the Shogunate

The growing dissatisfaction with the Tokugawa Shogunate eventually led to a movement to restore the Emperor to a position of political power. In 1868, the Meiji Restoration marked the end of the Tokugawa Shogunate and the establishment of a new centralized government under the Emperor. This change in leadership represented a significant break from the past and set the stage for Japan’s rapid modernization in the decades that followed.

The Reaction of the Japanese People to Commodore Perry’s Arrival

The arrival of Commodore Perry and the opening of Japan to foreign trade had a profound impact on the Japanese people. While some embraced the new opportunities presented by increased interaction with foreign powers, others were deeply suspicious of the changes and sought to protect Japan’s traditional way of life.

The Emergence of a Pro-Modernization Faction

For some in Japan, the arrival of Commodore Perry represented an opportunity to learn from the West and modernize Japan’s economy, military, and political system. This pro-modernization faction, which included many samurai and merchants, saw the rapid changes taking place in the world and believed that Japan needed to adapt in order to survive and thrive in the new global order.

Resistance to Foreign Influence and a Push for Nationalism

On the other hand, there were those who viewed the arrival of foreign ships and the opening of Japan’s ports as an affront to Japan’s sovereignty and a threat to its traditional way of life. This anti-foreign faction sought to expel the foreigners from Japan and restore the country’s isolationist policies. This resistance to foreign influence eventually evolved into a broader nationalist movement, which played a significant role in the eventual downfall of the Tokugawa Shogunate.

Conclusion

The arrival of Commodore Perry and his demands for open trade with Japan had far-reaching consequences for the Japanese government and the country as a whole. Faced with the reality of a rapidly changing world, the Tokugawa Shogunate’s inability to adapt to new economic and diplomatic challenges ultimately led to its downfall. The reactions of the Japanese government and people to Perry’s arrival were complex and varied, reflecting the diverse political, economic, and cultural forces at play in Japan during this tumultuous period.

A Japanese woodblock print of Perry (center) and other high-ranking American seamen

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